You Want Singapore, Get Venezuela

Why 1 in 5 young people would rather have a dictator than a vote

Democracy appears to be collapsing worldwide, and authoritarians are celebrating. In China’s social media they talk about America’s “kill line” (zhanshaxian), a gaming term for when your health bar drops so low that one hit kills you.

It refers to how easy it is in America to fall into irreversible poverty. One medical debt away from bankruptcy. 700,000 people homeless in the richest country on Earth. The Chinese state amplifies this narrative for obvious reasons: their citizens shouldn’t be thinking about democracy.

They’re not entirely wrong about the facts. but they’re wrong about the conclusion.

Democracy Numbers Look Bad

There’s a changing of the economic guard. In 1995, the G7 democracies controlled 45% of global economic power. BRICS nations held 17%. By 2030, those lines will have crossed dramatically: BRICS at 40%, G7 at 27%.

The human geography has shifted too. In 2010, 48% of humanity lived under autocracies. By 2024: 72%. Meanwhile, people living in fully liberal democracies dropped from 14% to 12%.

And trust? People in China report 79% confidence in their government. Singapore: 77%. The UAE: 74%. Compare that to Canada at 52%, Germany at 45%, the US at 46%.

The Youth Problem

Support for democracy declines sharply by age, specially in Latin America. Among Latin Americans over 60, 56% support democracy and only 13% prefer authoritarianism. Among those under 25? Only 45% support democracy, and 21% would prefer a dictator telling them what to do.

Among 18-35 year olds globally, 35% would accept a leader without elections. 42% would accept military rule.

Older people remember what authoritarian rule actually means. Young people have lived through democratic prosperity without understanding what built it.

Why This Is Happening

It’s not irrational. Authoritarian systems are faster. Building a metro line takes 12 years in New York, 11 in London, 6 in Madrid and only 4 in Singapore.

When young people see dictatorships building gleaming infrastructure while democracies argue endlessly, the appeal is obvious.

In China, 85% believe their children will be better off. In Japan, it’s 22%. In the US, one-third. This correlates closely with projected GDP growth.

Long Term Democracy Wins

Democracies generate 20% more GDP growth than authoritarian countries over time. Autocracies may sprint but eventually stagnate.

And the issue of trusting authoritarian economic data is that dictatorships lie. A 2022 study using satellite imagery to measure light emissions, something you can’t fake, found that free countries don’t inflate their GDP reports. Partially free countries inflate by 15%. Dictatorships? They inflate by 35%.

You Want Singapore, You Get Venezuela

When people fantasize about benevolent authoritarianism, they imagine Singapore. “Run the country like a company! Lock up the criminals! That worked for so-and-so!”

But Singapore is the exception that proves the rule. It’s a city-state of 5.6 million people with competitive internal elections and a freedom score of 48/100—pretty high for a dictatorship.

What you actually get is Venezuela. The GDP collapse there is historically unprecedented. From 100% in 2013 to 30% in 2023. No modern country has experienced anything comparable.

The pattern is clear: democratic collapse leads to economic collapse, slowly at first, then all at once.

Latin America Is in Trouble

The Democracy Index for Latin America dropped from 6.37 to 5.61 in a decade. Only two countries are improving: Costa Rica and Uruguay.

It rhymes with the pre-WWII pattern. Pandemic, economic crisis, nihilistic youth, and rising authoritarian votes. In 1928, the Nazis got 2.6%. They didn’t give up. By 1933: 43.9%.

The Real Cost of Authoritarianism

Here’s what you’re actually trading away:

• 11 years of life expectancy

• 6 years of education

• Press freedom (obviously)

• Higher GDP per capita

• And the big one: 45% forced emigration rate in autocracies vs. 2% in democracies

People vote with their feet.

China vs The World

Who invents things? Why didn’t China, home to the Wuhan respiratory disease lab, develop an mRNA vaccine?

Innovation happens in democracies. With exceptions for Singapore and China, the global innovation leaders are all democratic. Nobel laureates overwhelmingly live and work in democracies.

Via The Economist

The “kill line” propaganda exists because China needs distraction. Birth rates have collapsed to century-lows. Youth unemployment is surging. Consumer confidence crashed from 120 to 86 and hasn’t recovered.

The average Chinese person feels like a hamster that can’t stop running. Exactly like what people outside China say about savage capitalism. Maybe it’s the same feeling. The difference is: in democracies, people objectively live better.

And China is running a slow-motion financial crisis. Debt per capita is rising faster than income. Sounds familiar to the global financial crisis of 2008.

Is Democracy Even Real?

Two tests prove your democracy is real:

One: They try to manipulate your vote. If democracy didn’t work, they wouldn’t spend millions on ads or trade tamales for votes.

Two: Peaceful transfer of power between rivals. When your country’s leader hands power to their opponent, you have a democracy. Whether you like it or not.

Democracies don’t go to war with each other. If you’re truly pro-peace, you’re pro-democracy.

The situation is complex. It’s not black and white. BRICS countries don’t collaborate, they kinda hate each other. The G7 is fractured. It’s understandable that democracy feels broken.

But I can tell you one thing with certainty:

Only in a democratic government can you complain about the government. In the rest, all you can say is that you can’t complain.